Thursday, August 31, 2017

Sept 1 blog post

Hot and dry in Cerrado states.

This is normal for this time of year.
But rains should be starting by mid-month.
The forecast is for below normal rainfall until about Oct.

This may cause a bit later planting to soybeans than last year.
Southern Brazil is also worried about a late planting which then
increases the risk of 2nd crop corn.

The political and economic situation seems stable at the moment.
We would like to see more growth, but the economy is just
dilly dallying along. Business's continue to close and very few
new ones open. The ag economy is the GDP generator in the
economy. Without the massive ag production, Brazil would be in
deep doo doo.

China seems to be in the news every week. They are either buying
something or dealing on something all the time.
Even Korea bought a soy processor in Goias recently.

As per my April price forecast, I was expecting an early September
low in the markets. 9.03 is important for SX 17.

I will update again mid-month.

Brazil is going into the 2018 marketing year with massive amounts of
corn and soybean carryovers.

Br fertilizer delivery's are running slightly behind last year's pace.

Brazil meat exports are returning to pre-crisis levels.
Meat inspection at the packers are at record levels.

It looks like I will be in Mato Grosso again in September. I have
an international group coming in.

The Real:Dollar remains steady at 3.15.

If it were not for the lower dollar in relation to other international
currencies, I think the BRL would be closer to 3.50 today.

Elections for BR are in one year.  Oct 2018.
This will define BR's destiny.

Asphalting of BR 163 will finally get done in 2018. Look for more
harvest delievery problems going north again this rainy season.

Key words:  climate, politics, soy prices, BR 163, China





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