Sunday, March 26, 2017

March 26 blog: MT Ag show, yields, ethanol, and meat

I am back from the MT Ag show in Lucas do Rio Verde.

It was a very good show. Very homey...

Everyone is so open and wanting to talk about everything.

I will keep this brief as I have included much more detail
in newsletters.

The ag equipment dealers are all very optimistic about sales potentials
this year.

Fertilizer for 2018 crop year for MT is basically all wrapped up.
A few deals are being done for 2019 crop year.

Seed sales are fantastic. Yields were off the charts for some
varieties and maturity groups.

The shocker is how the 95-105 day soy outyielded the longer
120-125 day soy.

The basis for soybean prices widened again last week in MT.
Plentiful port supplies and meat scandel did not help.
Farmers are holding tight on the last portion of their crop.

JD 690 combines showed up at show. R$ 1.8 million for
machine with 45 ft flex header. Interest rate promo is
8.5% per year for that. Ponder that for awhile.......

I am hearing fantastic yields coming out of Piaui.

We are now hearing that BR soy crop is 108 to maybe even 111
million tons.

Given some of the yields we are hearing, I can see how we get there
via planted area X very high avg yields.

We are now even hearing 56 mmt for Argie.

At one time, a few were thinking sub 50 mmt????

Rain makes grain, but we need to becareful with the drowned out areas.
I think by the end of the day, we will be dropping these Argie numbers
a little.  (harvested area combined with disease issues)

BR soy crop size is a little befuddling. If the planted area really
is 34 M ha and record avg yields, then yes, crop is a 110 mmt.

BUT,

We have a few crop consultants saying the 1st crop corn is 33-34 mmt,
up from Conab 29 mmt. Some say planted area of 1st crop corn is 
greatly understated by Conab in a few states. 

This is my dilemma. If 1st crop corn area increased by 30% in some
locals, and 2nd crop soy was made illegal in a few states, that gets to
be 500, 600, and maybe even 700,000 ha total swing in planted area
of soybeans. 

My point is: I do not think Brazil expanded 1 million ha(for example)
beyond the acreage switch to able to surge to a new planted area record.
Yes, I agree, the productivity per ha in phenomenal. 

BUT, 

There are only so many acres to work with.

My argument is that if 1st crop is understated, then soy crop
is overstated. period

Now the final result might be like this, I might be right that planted
soy area may come down in coming months, but if yields keep coming
in super high, then it does not matter much.

The soy crop will shake out at 106-108 mmt, not quite 110-111 mmt,
but a heck of a lot more than 102/103 mmt where we started at for the year.

In the end, it´s all academic and not market moving info.

2nd crop corn is coming along nicely. If rains through April and no
frosts in May, 60 mmt+ 2nd crop should be on deck.

The corn ethanol mill in Lucas do Rio Verde is making progress.
It should be online in June.

Bruce Rastetter from Iowa was given recognition as the most influential
person in Mato Grosso the past year. Mato Grosso pioneers and businessmen
presented him with a plaque of appreciation for his efforts expanding corn
ethanol production to Brazil.

The Governor of Mato Grosso will be visiting Iowa this spring. 

Needless to say, the most challenging aspect for Brazil this past week has
been the meat scandel.

Minister/Secretary of Ag Blario Maggi has worked tirelessly this past week to
calm global meat market trade and even offered to go with representatives from 
any country to any Brazilian slaughter house on a one on one basis if need be to
reassure BR meat quality.

Brazil was lucky to have him at the helm during this event.

Given that China, Egypt, and Chile have already lifted their bans,
I think the crisis is, for the most part, behind us.

Brazil got lucky this time. It could have been much, much worse
with wrong person at the helm.

Keywords

Brazil corn ethanol, soybean crop, Brazil meat, seed productivity, Ag Show

www.brazilintl.com

agturbobrazil@yahoo.com











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