Friday, May 9, 2014

Conab as expected

Thursday´s Conab report was as expected.

The soy production numbers continue to increase after the
sharp drop in March. They went too far too fast.
Subscribers were forewarned of this months ago.

On Wednesday this week our Ag minister has been quoted
saying that Brazil crop is 89-90 mmt.

We have yet to see reliable numbers as to how much
2nd crop soy has been planted.

I think 1.5 to 2 mmt tons of "Bonus soy" or "Mario Bros power up"
bonus soy will be harvested in June. This will add a few gold coins to the hopper.

This will take the Brazil crop to about 88 mmt for a final tally.

The dry season has kicked in on time and this will hurt the late
planted corn in Mato Grosso. Lighter soils will burn up before
complete ear fill.

Thank you for all the loyal subscribers. Many have renewed this
week after being with me since the beginning. The newsletter is
going on 8 years old now after very humble beginnings.

It is appreciated.

I am headed to USA at the end of May.

Mickey, Nasa, Mall of America and Minnesota lake country
are on deck.

I will keep tabs on things the best I can.

Personal comment: With the massive surge is Brazilian soybean area
the past three seasons, I am looking for a plateau at this level for a bit.
The soy economics do not justify the rampant expansion of area going forward
as we have seen in the recent past.